silverflight8: bee on rose  (Default)
[personal profile] silverflight8
Note to self:

Don't research plague before bedtime.

Especially when you know their impact. Mortality rates of bubonic plague is estimated at 30-75%, pneumatic at 80% or higher, and septicaemic nearly 100% and no, you can't make me go back to Wikipedia and check my figures.

And it's not like smallpox. There's an animal carrier that we can't exactly eradicate :(
Depth: 1

Date: Dec. 10th, 2013 09:04 pm (UTC)
spiralsheep: Captain Scarlet is the god of redshirts (spiralsheep Captain Scarlet Redshirt God)
From: [personal profile] spiralsheep
I recently bought a secondhand book by post and was somewhat disconcerted to find the dust jacket appeared... chewed... by tiny teeth.... o_O
Depth: 3

Date: Dec. 10th, 2013 09:23 pm (UTC)
spiralsheep: Captain Scarlet is the god of redshirts (spiralsheep Captain Scarlet Redshirt God)
From: [personal profile] spiralsheep
I was more worried about mice with their perpetual urination but as the book arrived from the US there could be all sorts of other possibilities* I'd rather not know about, UGH!

Silverfish? ARGH!

* Not because the US is plague-ridden but because I personally am not familiar with their pests and diseases, obv.
Edited Date: Dec. 10th, 2013 09:24 pm (UTC)
Depth: 1

Date: Dec. 10th, 2013 09:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dhampyresa.livejournal.com
I don't know what you're talking about, the plague is fabulous. (It's also made ~10% of Europeans immune to HIV (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050325234239.htm), sort of.)
Depth: 2

Date: Dec. 10th, 2013 09:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] silverflight8.livejournal.com
D:

Necrosis was not what I expected upon opening the page. Mortality rates freak me out. (Reason #95837 why I am not an actuary.) Like mortality rates of over FIFTY PERCENT omg do you know the mortality rate of Spanish influenza in the 20th century was like 10% and it was horrifying enough (though admittedly I believe the disease spread further--the plague went through Asia but it didn't go to America, for example).

I don't know if I want to click that link or not.
Depth: 3

Date: Dec. 10th, 2013 09:36 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dhampyresa.livejournal.com
Sorry, I just really love the history of medicine.

On the one hand, you have to remember that the Spanish influenza hit Europe during/right after the First World War and that has to have impacted it's mortality rate. On the other hand, 10-20% mortality is nothing to sneeze at, especially when the number of infected means that 5% of the world's population died. Also, the Spanish influenza killed about three times as much people as the plague (100 millions on the outside to 35 millions).

As far as spreading goes, the plague never went to the Americas, but it impacted Europe a lot more than Asia. (Also, did you know that the first person to come up with bacteriological warfare was Vlad the Impaler who sent carriers of the plague over to the Ottomans' camps? Now you do.) Also also, the exact nature of the Balck Death has not been determined so far. We think it's the plague (Yersinia pestis), but there's theories it might not have been. I think smallpox and an ebola-like virus are popular?

If you don't want to click the link (there are no pictures, fyi), here's the gist of it: there's a particular genetic mutation that stops HIV from entering blood cells. The repartition of this mutation in european population with seems to correlate with a minor (1/200 000) mutation that protected people from the plague and so rose to prominence (1/10), because its carrier didn't die, a bit like sickle-cell disease and malaria.

Ironically, Y. Pestis is a bacteria, not a virus, so if this theory is true, Y. Pestis didn't cause the Black Death.

TL;DR: I like medicinal history and I don't know when to shut up about it.
Depth: 4

Date: Dec. 11th, 2013 12:11 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] silverflight8.livejournal.com
Lower mortality rates, but higher areas of spread = more fatalities. If the bubonic plague, or, godforbidanyoftheothervariants hit now, with the globalization of today, it'd be catastrophic. Beyond catastrophic.

Exactly! 10% in a mobile society is bad enough--you're right about the WWI thing, since people sick aren't staying home but moving--now imagine this figure upped. THAT'S what scares me. Plus the increasing mobility of people today; I remember the panic about SARS, where diseases can be brought across the world in a matter of hours.

Hm, I had the impression that the plague devastated places like India, Baghdad, anywhere there was major cities.

I did see the theories regarding anthrax and other causes, yeah.

Interesting! But I should really stop looking at this stuff.
Depth: 1

Date: Dec. 11th, 2013 05:10 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gothrockrulz.livejournal.com
Yikes, yikes, and did I mention yikes? *runs to hide*
Depth: 2

Date: Dec. 11th, 2013 06:27 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] silverflight8.livejournal.com
IKR?? But we haven't had a plague outbreak in a long long time. Better sanitation, antibiotics, education. *hopes*
Depth: 1(deleted comment)
Depth: 2

Date: Dec. 12th, 2013 07:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] silverflight8.livejournal.com
Wait, what?! No. That can't be.

I'm going to join you in plugging my ears. D:

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